A recipe for living with COVID-19

A recipe for living with COVID-19

As the days pass by, an eerie feeling is pervading within our hearts – that Corona is here to stay. The feeling darkens when the thought of absence of any preventive vaccine comes to mind. The only solace comes from the fact that the fatality rate is low, though we are misinformed about it because what we are being told is the percentage of deaths to those infected and not to those in whose case, the treatment has terminated!

In India, 1,82,490 cases have been confirmed as Corona positive till 8 AM today (31-5-20) out of which 5186 have died, 86,970 have recovered and remaining 90,323 are still active and undergoing treatment. Hence, we are told the fatality rate as 2.84% (i.e. dead as a percentage to total confirmed cases) But it is misleading. In fact, the treatment has been completed in respect of 92,156 persons out of which 5186 died and 86970 recovered. Thus, the effective and true mortality rate is 5.63%.

But what is dreadful is not the mortality rate, but the capability of the virus to spread so fast, that unless checked effectively, it has the potential of engulfing the whole mankind. This makes it more dreadful that AIDS and as dreadful as Plague. What makes it dangerous is that anyone can pick it up anywhere.

What the Experts Say?

In the absence of any effective medication for treatment or prevention of this virus, mankind has to accept the fact that the virus is going to stay and humans have to learn to live (or die) with it. The only effective way to control its spread is, un-questionably, the total lock-down. Easier said than done. Total lock-down is impossible to achieve in today’s world, which runs on a materialistic economy, particularly for such protracted and indefinite periods. Experts say that a 14 day period is enough to break the Corona chain because the symptoms of infection in maximum cases become visible in 7 to 10 days.

          The world. Including India, has seen the lock-down with varying degrees of success, minimal in soft democracies to complete in autocratic countries.

Current Scenario in India:

India struck back to the onslaught of Corona with a complete lock-down since 25^th March this year. The move was well-timed, well-intentioned, and well-enforced and showed positive results too. With the passage of time, certain things started going wrong, which is not uncommon for a megalith like India with a loose rope of a soft democracy. The Jamaat and the migrant labour stole the lustre of the government move.  

The move could have been a complete success, had the government clamped a National Emergency by suspending the democratic processes, restricting personal liberties, and gagging the media for a six-month period. Though I know, no political party could have the guts to do that! (.. or does it need an Indira?)

But, as I said earlier, lock-down locks down the economy as well, and no country, developed or developing, can afford to continue it for long. The month of June will see unlocking of the lockdown, not because we have controlled Corona, but because we are exhausted and unable to continue with it.

The Expected Fall Out:

Though, we may see a decline in Corona spread after the 5^th of June in areas not affected by the home-coming of labour, because of soaring temperatures during May 21-28. We can expect a steep rise in cases in July, once lock-down is completely lifted. The government may again be compelled to fall back on the tested remedy of a lockdown. This will be suicidal to the Indian Economy.

The Recipe:

Now we know, Coronavirus is here to stay, we know 14 days of strict distancing is sufficient to break the chain of infection, we also know that lock-down is the only remedy available at the moment, then why not amalgamate the lockdowns to our economic and administrative systems? We may call them PLANNED LOCKDOWNS, so there will be no need for separate exit plans.

         What I propose is 14 days Complete lockdowns on every alternative month starting August 2020 unless we are able to control the virus completely by the end of July.

Complete means complete. Thus, we will have Lockdowns from 1-14 August, 1-14 October, 1-14 December this year, and so on next year till the pandemic is controlled. This will work out to be a 14-days bimonthly holiday.

However, during the period intervening successive lockdowns, normal activities should be restored with usual precautions to control the spread of Coronavirus e.g. physical distancing, masks, and sanitizers, etc. All precautions relating to Orange and Red Zones and containment areas are required to be continued.

Benefits of Planned lockdowns:

It will provide much-needed infection chain-break which is essential to control the virus. As the lockdown dates would be known well in advance all economic, social, academic activities can be planned accordingly.

The problem of migrant labour, trapped citizens, etc. will vanish. The workers, students, and employees will either stay at places of work or will take up jobs nearer to their homes so that they can come home easily before the start of lockdown. Trapped people craved for going to their homes due to uncertainty about the lifting of the lockdown.

Problem of hunger will also not be there because all can store provisions and essentials for 14 days.

It will provide a breather to the administrative systems to prepare for the renewed assault on the virus.

The trains, airplanes, and other transport should start from 15^th day so that people can plan travel and make bookings accordingly in advance.

Economics of Six 14-day breaks per annum:

In this proposed lockdown, we will be losing 10 working days per lockdown (exclude 2 Saturdays and 2 Sundays). This totals up to 60 days a year.

Now if we choose to work on all Saturdays, we will have 40 Saturdays for work additionally in the year. Therefore, we lose only 20 days a year in the lockdowns, not a big price for our survival. We can also cut down some other unnecessary holidays to close this gap.

I hope our policymakers and men, who are responsible for taking decisions are already seized of this mammoth situation. They may consider my suggestions constructively. Time is running out fast, therefore, act fast.

O. C. Thakur IPS (Rtd) HP